Evening News Roundup: Day Three of Senate EPW Climate Bill Hearings

The big news out of today's hearings seems to be Boxer's determination to press ahead with her plan to get the bill out of committee on November 3--this coming Tuesday. The objections, presaged in Republican questioning of Tuesday's cabinet-level panelists, as described here, are that the Congressional Budget Office has not done a full analysis, and neither has the EPA. Boxer apparently replied that neither of these pass the "smell test," since CBO analyses usually don't occur until after a bill is out of committee, and since Kerry-Boxer borrows so heavily from Waxman-Markey, the EPA analysis of the differences between the two bills was sufficient. Politico reports on this here, the Washington Post here, and Dow Jones here. In response, Reuters reports in this article, committee Republicans are dangling the possibility of boycotting next week's committee work sessions to prevent a vote from happening at all (since they don't have the votes to keep it in committee if they do meet.)

Meanwhile, this Greenwire article reports that Senator Specter (D, PA) is now officially pushing to get a Clean Air Act preemption clause in the bill, and that Senator Baucus (D, WY) has told reporters that he has not made up his mind on the bill. Senator Boxer can do without their votes in committee, but will need them later on in the process, as explained in this earlier post.

Morning News Roundup on Kerry-Boxer Bill: Day Three

This morning, Politico is describing the tough path ahead for the Senate climate bill, given the doubts expressed by Senator Baucus (D, WY), but also reports that Senator Boxer (D, CA) is determined to get the bill out of committee even without Baucus, given negotiations she conducted with Senator Carper (D, DE) "who played a major role in negotiating a deal with coal-state members and is expected to back the legislation." (It looks, given the grumvblings reported in the article, like Senator Boxer knew that she had to overshoot Waxman-Markey's 17% GHG reduction goal initially in order to hold firm on it in the end, because a lot of folks are taking aim at the 20% figure.)

ClimateWire is reporting that the generosity initially seen in Kerry-Boxer in allocating more allowances to pro-climate moves like sustainable transportation and energy efficiency (as an earlier post discusses here) may not really improve on the House bill, given required deficit-reduction measures, in "Reality Sets In; Senate Allocation Pie Smaller Than House Climate Bill's."

And NPR reports on the "Battle of [the] Statistics" at yesterday's hearings, in which Senator Boxer announced to the assembled Republicans "Since you held up a chart [on Tuesday] we're going to have our little chart wars today — you hold up one and we hold up one; it's kind of equal time." (Its nice to see Boxer tackling the naysayers head-on: On Tuesday, she responded to statistical pronouncements and descriptions of research papers that she felt were distorted immediately, prompting Republicans to complain that she might drag the proceedings into a tit for tat.) According to NPR, Boxer's tough tone didn't stop (fossil fuels) industry executives from trying to invoke scary job-loss numbers, however. The full article can be seen here.

Inhofe Still Fuming

But Baucus, Specter and others like them may be the ones to watch

Senator Inhofe (R, OK) has posted his opening statement from Wednesday morning's hearings before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on the Kerry-Boxer climate change bill. It begins with "Based on all the evidence we've seen, in this and other committees in the Senate, I can say with confidence that Kerry-Boxer will destroy jobs, weaken our national security, and raise electricity prices for consumers" and continues in that vein. (You can read the complete statement here.)

It is becoming very clear that we are seeing a shift in our economy, from one based on non-renewable fossil fuels and some nuclear energy, to a more diversified method of providing for our energy needs through renewable energy, advanced batteries, demand response, and energy efficiency, as well as fossil fuels and nuclear energy. There will be winners and losers as investment, jobs and political capital shift from one set of industries to another. The folks on Senator Inhofe's team are the losers in this scenario, and he's not happy about it.

But Inhofe's sour grapes should not distract from a more important set of signals that will foretell the direction of this bill--the opinions of moderate Democrats from fossil-fuel-dependent states. On the Environment and Public Works Committee these include Senator Baucus (D, WY), whose state produces 40% of the coal used in the U.S. every year, and Senator Specter (D, PA), whose state is home to massive bituminous coal fields.

As reported here, Senator Baucus expressed "serious reservations" about achieving the 20% GHG emissions reduction target in the Kerry-Boxer bill, stating that "We cannot afford the unmitigated impacts of climate change but we also cannot afford the unmitigated effects of legislation.” He lines up with Republicans on the committee in asking that the bill include a preemption clause to prevent the EPA from using the Clean Air Act to regulate GHGs. And not only does he have a vote on EPW, but also, as Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, he will have a crack at rewriting major provisions of the bill before it gets to the Senate floor.

Senator Specter, who only just defected from the Republican party, could be the critical 60th vote to overcome a potential Republican filibuster. In his opening statement on Tuesday, he staked out his position as follows: "My state, Pennsylvania, is a microcosm. It has been built upon coal and steel, and it is critical that any legislation take into account those factors. My state has a great deal of natural gas with the new Marcellus Shale opening clean fuel for the future. . . . A week ago today I held a hearing in Pittsburgh on the potential of green jobs, but at the same time I’m concerned as to what would happen in southwestern Pennsylvania in the coal mines." And he made it clear during questioning on Tuesday that he also wants to see a clause in the bill preventing EPA from using the CAA to regulate GHGs.

So while Inhofe may be making the most noise, just as with Waxman-Markey in the House, it will be the moderate Democrats who ultimately move this bill the most in the Senate.